I use this blog to put my thoughts in writing, to refine and clarify my opinions and arguments, and to hopefully catch any major errors or blind spots before I attempt to act on them. Topics can range from politics to film criticism to things happening in my daily life.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Thoughts on the election

Well, that's over and done with. I'm mildly disgruntled about the results, on both a state and national level. It's not like the Democrats particularly deserved to win either, but the number of positions shifted to the GOP, as well as the overall strength of their victory, means the crap that won't get done over the next few years will be slightly more unpalatable than the crap that wouldn't have gotten done otherwise.

As a copy editor, I get to follow election news whether I like it or not. As such, here are a few of my takeaways from Democalypse 2014:



  • A lot of the Senate at least comes down to structural disadvantage: the Dems were 6 years out from a historic wave, with all the indefensible seats that come with it. In 2016, it's the GOP's turn. All things considered, I'd rather have a structural advantage in a presidential year than a midterm, but it's still disheartening to strive not to win, but only not to be beaten badly enough to actually tip the scales. At the same time, this doesn't explain the house and governor races that likewise tilted considerably to the right.
  • It's tempting to take this as a blanket condemnation of President Obama, which isn't exactly true (see above). However, it certainly isn't a favorable reaction to his second term. Many GOP candidates ran successfully on anti-Obama platforms, and Obama himself was ineffectual at best, damaging at worst in his efforts to assist them. The whole 'my agenda is on the ballot' thing was idiotic, reports are already coming out of tension between the white house and the Democratic senate campaign leaders, and all in all the election continued to strengthen the impression that Obama is a gifted campaigner (for himself, at least) and a good (or at least knowledgeable, depending on which side of the aisle one calls home) policymaker, but an indifferent manager and a downright bad politician when it comes to horse-trading and relationship-building. 
  • It's tempting to take this as a blanket pardon for the GOP's shutdown shenanigans, which isn't exactly true (see above). However, it certainly shows that a great many voters have forgotten or at least moved on. I find this very discouraging, since it implies carte blanche for either party to do whatever idiotic shit they want, so long as they wrap it up at least a year before the next election. Three cheers for the American voter!
  • The GOP shaped up. During the 2013, shutdown, a lot of people, myself included, made fun of the much-ballyhooed GOP rebranding effort after the 2012 defeat. I think we missed the point. The people who screwed the pooch in 2013 had already been elected when the GOP started their damage control, and there's only so much you can do with Ted Cruz. What they could do is put in place much stricter vetting and training programs for future candidates. There were no 'legitimate rape' screwups from the GOP candidate class of 2014.
  • Pollsters whiffed this one: GOP did way better than anyone was projecting. I don't know enough of the science of policy of polling to comment on what that means, but when the GOP did better than even their projections, something big must have gone down that nobody saw coming.
  • GOP retains the house, even makes some gains. Big deal. Nobody even cares about the House anymore. It won't be competitive again until a complete overhaul of redistricting on a state-by-state level, which won't be any time soon.
  • Will the GOP grow up? Technically, they can still throw crazypants legislation at Obama, make him veto it, and use it to bludgeon him to set up the 2016 race. Is that the game plan? At least one commentator already has sketched out how the GOP likely will conspicuously avoid making constructive changes on health care. Not hopeful for immigration, either. Did the do-nothing congress just get do-nothinger?
  • Will Obama grow a spine? He did last year during the shutdown, but then reverted to form on Keystone, Immigration, etc. Someone has to teach this guy a form of compromise not indistinguishable from 'passively not doing controversial things'. By repeatedly saying he would do something about a major issue, then backing down or delaying so as not to rile the GOP base, he probably played a major role in sapping the enthusiasm of his coalition of young, female and minority voters, who by and large stayed home. On which note ...
  • Young people do not deserve a voice in this country.
    Simple as that. People in their 20s are not a constituency that has any right to expect policy objectives like student loan reforms. Clearly, we vote for personalities (Obama), not actual policies. 

I think that's everything that needs to be said. Overall, a depressing election, partly for the results but moreso for the trendlines and narratives it reinforces. Nor am I particularly looking forward to 2016; we'll likely retake the Senate and then some, but I've never found any particular reason to be enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton, and I don't really expect her to produce one now. But two years is a long time; we'll see what the landscape looks like then.

No comments:

Post a Comment